Dont expect a shootout between Steelers and Browns plus other best bets for Thursday

Dont expect a shootout between Steelers and Browns plus other best bets for Thursday

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Hello, it's me, Tom Fornelli, and after being gone for the last week, it feels good to be back in your inbox. It also felt good to walk the dog this morning because not only is today the first official day of fall, but where I live, the weather cooperated. After weeks of humid, 80-degree days, when I stepped outside with the dog this morning, it was mostly cloudy with temps in the mid-50s. There was a stiff breeze blowing, and it smelled like fall.It was glorious. Fall is my top season. You've got all the best sports going and the best weather. I'll Jesse Puljujarvi Women Jersey hear an argument for spring, but that's all. If you're out here trying to argue for summer or winter, you're either still in school (summer) or anti-social (winter). CBS Sports HQ Newsletter Your Ultimate Guide to Every Day in Sports We bring sports news that matters to your inbox, to help you stay informed and get a winning edge. I agree to receive the "CBS Sports HQ Newsletter" and marketing communications, updates, special offers (including partner offers), and other information from CBS Sports and the Paramount family of companies. By pre sing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the and acknowledge Paramount's . Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe. Thanks for signing up! Keep an eye on your inbox. Sorry! There was an error proce sing your subscription. Give me fall 365 days a year. Oh, and give me these stories too. Honestly, I've mi sed so much in the world of sports over the last week that I've got a lot of reading to catch up on myself..!.OK, let's make some money The Hot Ticket Key Trend: The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.The Pick: Under 38 (-115)Keeping things simple last Thursday worked out well for us, and I'm not changing the formula this week. Neither one of these teams has shown us a lot offensively. The Steelers have been especially anemic, ranking 28th in the league in offensive succe s rate and 26th in points per drive. I'm not expecting and company to figure things out tonight against a Cleveland defense that's been excellent to start the year. Especially with a woeful offensive line. The Browns' offense has been better than Pittsburgh's and ranks sixth in the league in points per drive, but that's a number likely to come down if it doesn't improve on a down-to-down basis. Their offensive succe s rate of 42.4% ranks only 16th, and they've struggled finishing drives, scoring touchdowns on 55.6% of their red zone po se sions.Another factor is how the clock churns when the Browns have the ball. They put together long drives while running 54.7% of the time, which is the third-highest rate in the Kailer Yamamoto Kids Jersey league. In other words, Pittsburgh's offense can't score, and Cleveland's offense never lets the clock stop. Throw those two forces up against solid defenses (both are top 10 in succe s rate), and we aren't likely to see a shootout tonight.. The Picks One more for Steelers at Browns The Pick: Anytime TD (-145) --It's a heavy price to pay, but as I've mentioned, the Cleveland offense is one of the run-heaviest in the league. With at quarterback and the Browns favored, I don't anticipate that changes much tonight. That only increases the odds of Nick Chubb getting some red zone and goal-line carries. While he hasn't had a lot of succe s against Pittsburgh in his career (he's averaged only 4.37 yards per attempt and scored one touchdown in seven career games), I like his odds of hitting paydirt tonight.The Browns have already scored three rushing touchdowns in the red zone this season and broken six tackles. Their 3.57 yards per carry in the red zone is the fourth-best mark in the league. We could get vultured by , but I think this price on Chubb scoring is friendly.Key Trend:Cleveland has scored three red zone rushing TDs already this season. College FootballThe Pick: Under 50.5 (-110) --West Virginia is scoring 46 points per game, but trust me when I tell you that is misleading. First, the Mountaineers scored 65 points against Towson. In two games against Pitt and Kansas, the Mountaineers are averaging 36.5 points per game. That is still pretty good, but Kansas's defense has been pretty bad, and Pitt's defense hasn't looked great, either. This Virginia Tech defense will be the best one West Virginia has seen. It's ranked 9th in the country in succe s rate, 13th in points allowed per drive, and 10th in EPA per play. It's good. What's not nearly as good is the Virginia Tech offense. If I were to use adjectives to describe it, I would go with "depre sing," or maybe even "abominable." It ranks 100th in succe s rate, 116th in succe s rate and 95th in EPA per play.The listed total for tonight's game is giving a little too much credit to West Virginia's offensive performance against bad defenses. We are taking this under as long as the total is over 49.Key Trend:The Josh Archibald Jersey under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings..
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